JPMorgan: 强劲的美国经济预示 2025 年美元将持续走强

JPMorgan forecasts that the U.S. dollar will maintain its strong position throughout 2025, bolstered by a robust U.S. economy that is set to outpace other developed nations. In its latest report, JPMorgan attributes the dollar’s persistent strength to widening disparities in global economic performance.

According to the report, the U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2024, significantly higher than the 1.7% forecast for other advanced economies. This growth is driven by higher productivity, increased business investment, and reduced labor shortages. As a result, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, potentially leading the Fed to delay further rate cuts and sustaining the dollar’s upward momentum.

JPMorgan also highlights the role of monetary policy differentials. While the Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a modest approach to monetary easing, with a projected rate cut of just 44 basis points, the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 110 basis points, and the Bank of Japan may hike rates by 47 basis points. This divergence reinforces the dollar’s appeal as a high-yielding asset.

Additionally, policies proposed by the incoming U.S. administration are expected to further support the dollar. Plans to bolster domestic manufacturing, raise tariffs, and deregulate industries could spur economic growth and sustain higher interest rates, enhancing the dollar’s strength.

However, JPMorgan warns of long-term structural challenges to the dollar’s dominance. The U.S. trade deficit, which accounted for 4.2% of GDP as of late 2024, underscores a heavy reliance on imported goods. While the dollar remains robust, this imbalance could eventually weigh on its position.

For investors, a strong dollar may have mixed implications. While it reinforces the narrative of “U.S. exceptionalism,” it could negatively impact U.S. companies with significant international exposure and make American exports less competitive. JPMorgan advises investors to carefully evaluate the dollar’s trajectory and its potential effects on their portfolios.

Conclusion: The dollar’s resilience has defied expectations and may continue to do so in 2025, but its long-term sustainability faces critical tests.