比特币与黄金对投资组合的影响分析

According to Odaily, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently shared insights on X regarding the distinct impacts of Bitcoin and gold on investment portfolios. Hougan emphasized that historically, Bitcoin and gold have had different effects on portfolios. Over the long term, Bitcoin has increased returns without adding risk, while gold has reduced risk without lowering returns. He clarified that this analysis is based on historical data and is not investment advice, as past performance does not guarantee future results.

Hougan suggested that the best way to understand the impact of Bitcoin and gold on portfolios is to examine historical data on adding varying amounts of these assets. Historically, increasing the allocation of Bitcoin in a portfolio has significantly boosted overall returns, with minimal changes in volatility, as measured by standard deviation. Simulations indicate that a 2.5% allocation to Bitcoin could raise portfolio returns from 98% to 148%, a 50 percentage point increase, while the standard deviation would only rise by 33 basis points.

In contrast, a 2.5% allocation to gold over the same period would only increase portfolio returns by 1%, having a negligible impact on returns. However, gold's influence is more pronounced in reducing volatility. As more gold is added to a portfolio, the standard deviation decreases, indicating lower volatility. Hougan noted that each asset has its trade-offs and that these historical functions may not persist in the future. As the world enters a new era of global government stimulus programs, it is crucial to remember that Bitcoin and gold serve different roles in investment portfolios.

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