2024 年 9 月 12 日 OTC 交易洞察：每周综述

• 本周，我们的交易部门注意到，BTC 市场波动性开始加剧，下周 FOMC 会议前将公布多项有关美国劳动力市场和 CPI 的关键数据。BTC 价格密切跟踪美国股市表现，而一些山寨币则表现得更加独立。

• Sui ($SUI) 是一个独特的第 1 层区块链和智能合约平台，旨在通过使数字资产快速、私密且人人可用来增强其所有权。数字资产管理公司 Grayscale 最近推出了 Grayscale Sui Trust，合格投资者可以投资 SUI。利好消息帮助 SUI 在一周内实现了 15.3% 的涨幅，而 BTC 在同一时期下跌了 0.8%。

• Book of Meme ($BOME) 上周在 Convert 上的交易需求也十分强劲。这款 meme 币在 Convert 上的交易量增长了 73.4%，上周涨幅为 4.1%，表现优于许多其他市值相当的 meme 币。

• 第一层区块链 Cardano ($ADA) 由以太坊联合创始人 Charles Hoskinson 于 2017 年推出。其备受期待的“Chang”更新于 9 月 1 日发布，完成了生态系统向去中心化治理的长期转变。得益于这次硬分叉更新，ADA 代币持有者将能够通过选择治理代表和批准开发想法来影响 Cardano 的未来。上周，由于升级后的看涨情绪，ADA 上涨了 7.2%。

整体市场

• 上图显示了

  8小时图中的

  BTC价格走势。

• BTC 价格已在这种蓝色下行趋势中交易近六个月，并经历了一次显着的回调，从 73,777 美元的历史高点下跌 34%，至 8 月 5 日套利交易平仓导致的市场低点 49,000 美元。

• 如前所述，50,000 美元/52,000 美元区间是强劲支撑区，57,000 美元水平提供局部支撑。上周五，在美国非农就业数据令人失望之后，BTC 价格再次在 50,000 美元/52,000 美元区间内测试了这一水平，引发了市场对美国经济的担忧，以及美联储在 9 月 18 日降息 50 个基点的必要性。从历史上看，当美联储在经济状况不佳的情况下降低利率时，通常会导致 12 至 18 个月内出现衰退。

• 我们担心美联储降息 50 个基点将引发又一轮风险资产抛售，将 BTC 价格推低至 50k/52k 的强支撑区间以下。如果这种情况发生，当前的牛市周期将有效结束，并成为 BTC 历史上除 2013 年周期外最短的牛市周期。

• This week's CPI data suggests that inflation in the United States is moving in the Fed's favour, and the market is now leaning toward a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed on September 18. The reduced concern about a potential recession in the United States encourages risk-taking. Following the initial reaction to the CPI data, US stocks rallied and recovered all of their losses, closing higher. BTC tracked US equities closely, falling below $55.7k before rising above $57k before the session ended.

• The FOMC meeting will take place next week, and our desk anticipates some market volatility around the time when Fed Chair Powell delivers his speech after the meeting.

Options Market

• The above chart is the 25-delta skewness on BTC options in the last two weeks.

• A 25-delta skew on options refers to the premium difference between a 25-delta call and a 25-delta put with the same expiry. The negative skew indicates that options traders would prefer to pay a higher premium on puts for downside protection than on calls for upside rewards. It provides a proxy measure for market sentiments by tracking the 25-delta skew across different expirations.

• As shown in the chart above, front-end BTC options (with a 7-day expiry) have been negative for the last two weeks, with the negative skew further lowering last Friday when BTC was sold below $52.7k. The chart also showed that market sentiment shifted to neutral over the weekend as the Bitcoin price recovered.

• The skew in medium- to long-term options suggested that options traders were not as bearish as indicated by the front-end options. In the last two weeks, the 60-day, 90-day, and 180-day expired options have all had above-zero skews, while the longer-dated options have maintained steady skews above 0. With the risk backdrop of reduced concern on the US recession and a Fed rate cut on the horizon, risk appetite is encouraged. We anticipate that the skew on BTC options across all durations will rise, indicating some bullish sentiment before/after the FOMC meeting.

Macro at a glance

• Last Thursday (24-09-05)

  • According to ADP nonfarm employment data, the US private market added only 99k new jobs in August, far below analysts' expectations of 144k. The weak ADP data raised market concerns about the US economy's conditions, increasing the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September.

  • Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 227k, which was lower than the estimated 231k.

  • The S&P Global Services PMI was 55.7 in August, up from the forecasted 55.2.

• Last Friday (24-09-06)

  • In the United States, nonfarm payrolls (NFP) increased by 142,000 in August, less than 160,000 market expectations. This followed an increase of 89,000 in July, revised from 114,000. The USD index traded volatilely in the Friday session, while US equities fell as concerns about the US economy outweighed risk appetite.

  • The US unemployment rate fell back to 4.2% in August, after hitting 4.3% in July.

  • The unemployment rate in Canada increased to 6.6% in August, exceeding the forecasted 6.5% and July's 6.4%.

  • BTC price experienced a significant sell-off in the Friday US session and found support at 52.5k following an 8% drop.

• On Monday (24-09-09)

  • The unemployment rate in the UK fell to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June, meeting economists' expectations.

  • The German CPI fell by 0.1% monthly in August, compared to a 0.3% increase in July. The annualized CPI change was 1.9%, which is lower than the 2.3% increase in July.

• On Wednesday (24-09-11)

  • The US CPI increased by 0.2% month on month in August, matching the pace seen in July. August saw annualized CPI growth of 2.5%, down from 2.9% in July. However, the monthly core CPI growth rate reaches 0.3%, exceeding the estimated 0.2% and July's 0.2%. The stubborn shelter cost served as the primary driver of the unexpectedly higher core CPI growth.

  • The CPI data released on Wednesday solidified the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with an 86% probability. US equities initially lost some ground after the CPI data was released. The market then turned bullish as the Fed's chances of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points increased, and risk assets were bid up. The S&P 500 index finished up 1.07%, while the Nasdaq index rose 2.15%. As a first reaction, the BTC price fell below $55.7k before regaining the $57,000 level by market close.

Convert Portal Volume Change

• The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.

• Market volatility began to rise in early September, and the BTC price closely tracked US equities. Last Friday after the weak job data in the US, the BTC price fell below $52.7k amid rising concerns about the US economy. The sentiment improved over the weekend, and BTC returned to above $57k on Wednesday.

• Last week, the Megadrop Zone saw a volume increase of 59.8%. The primary reason for the volume increase was the high demand for BounceBit ($BB).

• The volume of the Storage zone increased by 14.0% during the same time period. The BitTorrent ($BTTC) demand surge was the primary driver of the volume increase in the Storage zone.

• In addition, the NFT Zone's volume increased by 4.3%. The change was primarily driven by Mines of Dalarnia ($DAR).

Why trade OTC?

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API.

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