美联储强硬派密集：目前不考虑降息，可能需要进一步加息

达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根周五表示，考虑降息还为时过早，理由是近期强劲的通胀数据以及有迹象表明借贷成本对经济的拖累可能不像之前想象的那么大。

“考虑到这些风险，我认为现在考虑降息还为时过早。我需要看到更多证据表明我们经济道路的不确定性正在得到解决，”洛根在杜克大学的一次活动中发表事先准备好的讲话时表示。

洛根的言论受到投资者的密切关注，因为她此前曾在纽约联储管理央行的资产组合，她表示，她越来越担心通胀的进展可能会陷入停滞。她补充说，美联储官员“应继续做好准备，在通胀停止下降的情况下采取适当应对措施。”

洛根的言论表明，她是预计 2024 年降息两次或更少的决策者之一。在政府数据显示美国 3 月份非农就业人数创近一年来最大增幅、同时失业率下降数小时后，她发表了讲话。

演讲结束后，洛根在与杜克大学教授、前美联储高级顾问艾伦·米德的问答环节中表示，“目前还没有紧迫感。” “现在有时间等待，看看有什么数据出来，看看金融状况如何演变。需要明确的是，主要风险不是通胀可能上升——尽管货币政策制定者必须保持警惕——而是通胀可能停滞并无法按照预测及时回到2%。”

除了通胀数据外，洛根表示，她担心货币政策对经济的拖累可能不会像大多数预测所暗示的那么大。这可能意味着所谓的中性利率——既不减缓也不刺激经济增长的利率——将会更高。 “越来越多的经济和金融证据表明，长期中性利率可能已经上升，”她说。

“越来越多的经济和金融证据表明，长期中性利率可能已经上升，”她说

洛根补充说，衡量中性利率和其他经济发展的不确定性，包括可能有助于国民产出的移民激增，意味着目前关注通胀数据比就业数据更有用。洛根还重申，美联储可能应该很快开始放慢缩减资产负债表的步伐，美联储可能会降低其可以从资产负债表中删除的美国国债的月度限额，同时保持抵押贷款支持证券的上限不变。

美联储理事鲍曼周五也表达了对通胀潜在上行风险的担忧。她继续预计，在目前的利率水平下，价格压力将进一步降温，但她重申，现在“还不是”降息的时候，可能需要加息来控制通胀。鲍曼表示，政策制定者需要小心，不要过快放松政策。

“While this is not my base view, I continue to see a risk that, at future meetings, we may need to raise our policy rate further if progress on inflation stalls or even reverses. Lowering our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, leading to the need to raise interest rates further in the future to return inflation to 2% over the longer run,” she said in a speech prepared for a group of Fed watchers in New York.

Bowman, a permanent voting member of the interest rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, has taken a more hawkish tone in her public speeches since taking the job in late 2018, suggesting she favors a more aggressive stance to keep inflation in check.

Bowman said she still believes the most likely outcome is that “rate cuts will eventually be appropriate,” but noted that “we are not there yet” because “I still see some upside risks to inflation.”

Bowman also noted that it is "very likely" that the neutral interest rate will be higher than it was before the pandemic. "If that is the case, fewer rate cuts will ultimately be appropriate to return our monetary policy stance to a neutral level."

Overall, Fed officials have been increasingly hawkish this week, including Fed Chairman Powell, who has indicated a cautious approach to rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said on Wednesday that he expects only one rate cut this year, in the fourth quarter. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that if inflation stops cooling and the economy remains strong, there may be no need to cut rates.

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data

标签：美联储