不，特朗普的胜利可能对加密货币不利

周一，Politico 发表了一篇文章，认为特朗普在 2024 年获胜可能会“扭转局势”，对加密货币有利。

“这将标志着乔·拜登总统的重大转变，他的政府和监管机构一直对加密货币持怀疑态度，因为他们认为加密货币对消费者和更广泛的金融体系构成风险，”记者贾斯珀·古德曼写道。

他们引用了众议院多数党党鞭汤姆·埃默（Tom Emmer）和前货币审计长布莱恩·布鲁克斯（Brian Brooks）等权力人物的说法，认为“反建制”总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）如果获胜，可能会制定有利于加密货币的政策并放松监管。

这是 Node 时事通讯的摘录，该时事通讯是 CoinDesk 及其他领域最关键的加密货币新闻的每日综述。

您可以在此处订阅以获取完整的新闻通讯。

毕竟，即使没有明确地与加密货币“结盟”，特朗普——他曾经说过加密货币是“凭空而来”（但现在似乎很高兴从 NFT 中赚取数百万美元）——默认情况下也会比拜登政府的敌对立场更好。 。

这是一个显而易见的观点，特别是考虑到美国证券交易委员会对 Coinbase 和 Kraken 等老牌机构提起的一系列诉讼、司法部与币安达成的历史性和解以及拜登在与行业争吵时采取的“整个政府”方针。

另请参阅：加密货币变得政治化

不太明显的是，更友好的监管前景实际上可能比加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler)造成更大的伤害，无论如何，加里·詹斯勒即将卸任 SEC 主席一职。

尽管加密货币内部人士一边谴责监管，一边要求明确性已成为一种老生常谈，但有理由认为，无边界、去中心化和无状态的协议只有通过严格的考验才能成为真正的无边界、去中心化和无状态。

而且，说实话，加密货币似乎已经失去了开发严肃的、广泛可用的协议来抵御来自恶意行为者和民族国家的威胁的最大机会。

相反，在过去的四年里，在全球各地（尤其是美国）敌对当局的压力下，这个已有十五年历史的行业抓住了机会来证明基于区块链的技术到底有多么有弹性、开放和实用。是。

这显然是夸大其辞——以免我们忘记，比特币的交易价格离 50,000 美元不远——但幅度也不是很大。

该行业并没有开发出能够在核浩劫等情况下幸存下来的有用工具，而是通过一个又一个的例子来说明为什么这项技术需要受到监管。

撇开 Terra 崩溃或数十亿美元的 FTX 欺诈等重大技术故障不谈，加密货币领域充斥着小型诈骗和漏洞。

In what world would allowing more of this activity to continue unchecked be good for crypto?

I’m not quite convinced there are regulatory solutions to systemic issues like fraud; open and permissionless protocols like blockchain and the internet will always be abused and misused. But there is a clear connection between the proliferation of scammers and the amount of capital in crypto (compare the data for the last bull and bear markets, for instance).

A change in sentiment that suggests the U.S. government will ease up on crypto could do a lot to empower bad actors. It might also implicitly give a greenlight to corporations to begin marketing risky financial products to retail consumers again. Has the crypto lending sector really worked out its kinks after the collapse of all of the largest crypto lenders?

To be fair, regulation doesn't have to be a partisan issue, even if supporting crypto is increasingly becoming politicized. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), a Trump ally, told Politico that Republicans are looking to prioritize “consumer protections without destroying a very nascent industry.” And, for all we know about how this election cycle will turn out, there could be another four years of Biden, with Gensler promoted to Treasury Secretary, the job he has long coveted.

But I’m a believer in the devil you know. Ideally, developers would entirely tune out politics and build protocols that regulatory enforcers simply cannot touch. Unfortunately, however, instead of becoming inflamed by “Operation Choke Point 2.0” and the regulatory enforcements against DAOs and DeFi to build better protocols, many simply bent the knee.

See also: Popular Uniswap Frontend Blocks Over 250 Crypto Addresses

All of this is based on the idea that open-source development is as collaborative as the name suggests, and that lessons can be shared to progress the entire sector. Some take the idea so far as to believe that, in time, after enough hacks, open protocols could become “unhackable.” It’s like compacting garbage hard enough to end up with a diamond.

So will crypto be better off if Trump is inaugurated again in 2025? It’s worth noting that around the time he won the presidency in late-2016, there were a range of predictions, too. CoinDesk wrote about the Trump transition as “a trial run for smart contracts,” while others were concerned about his negative views on Big Tech.

Funnily enough, ex-NYT columnist Farhad Manjoo wrote about the tech sector’s lamenting of Trump’s win while Politico covered it as a potential financial windfall for tech luminary Peter Thiel. The first thing Politico’s Tony Romm mentioned? Thiel’s bitcoin investments…

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