2019考研英语阅读练习

I found that people in the currency circle are a bit worried about mathematics. They can’t even make a boat - what is the high point of BTC in this wave of Mavericks? ​ Extreme carving Someone calculated that from 2017 to 2019, the high point in 2017 was 19798.68 and the high point in 2019 was 13970 ​ Rebound amplitude=13970/19798.68=70% Extreme high point in 2023=69000*70%=48300 ​ First of all, using the highest point on the shadow line of the K line to calculate is too extreme, and there is no amount at that position. ​ Secondly, since the market was in the low 2 digits in 2013, it can be ignored. The lowest is more than 3,000 in 2018 and the lowest is 15,000 in 2022, so it cannot be ignored. As for callbacks and rebounds, you have to calculate the difference. If BTC rises from 400,000 to 500,000 in a certain round in the future, can you calculate its correction based on 500,000? That should be based on (50-40) to calculate the callback! ​ According to coingekco data (coingekco’s data is the weighted average value based on transaction volume, which can better reflect the inflow and outflow of funds) 2017 top: 19665.39 2018 bottom: 3216.63 2019 top: 12996.12 2021 Top: 67617.02 2022 bottom: 15742.44 ​ Conservative engraved boat Rebound amplitude=12996.12/19665.39=66% Conservative high point of Kezhou in 2023=67617.02*66%=44627 ​ The current high is 44,700, which is what the market is doing for the time being. (That’s why I say the data of people in the currency circle is worrying) ​ Correct carving (not considering inflation) Rebound amplitude=(12996.12-3216.63)/(19665.39-3216.63)=59.45% ​ The theoretical high point in 2023 (not considering inflation) =(67617.02-15742.44)*59.45%+15742.44=46581.88 ​ Scientific carving (without considering inflation) However, there is another important issue. The current macro environment is much different from that of the past. From 2018 to 2019, interest rates and inflation were relatively stable. ​ This is not the case now. From November 2021 to November 2022, the inflation rate is between 6.8% and 9.1%, and the average inflation rate is 7.94%. ​ The inflation rate from November 2022 to November 2023 is between 7.1 and 3.1, with an average inflation rate of 4.675%. ​ In other words, $107.94 during the decline has the same purchasing power as $104.675 during the rebound. Use this to correct it again ​ The theoretical high point in 2023 (considering inflation) =(67617.02-15742.44)*59.45%/107.94*104.675+15742.44 =45649 ​ Other than carving boat Let’s not worry about whether Kezhou is right or not, but Kezhou’s 48,000 is an exaggeration (of course, if the BTC spot ETF passes, then 48,000 is possible, or even higher, but this is beyond Kezhou). In addition, the top of the market now shows that the price of more than 44,000 is actually unscientific. ​ But the scientific carving boat is only about 45,000-46,000. Of course, the emotional impact of ETFs is also beyond the immediate scope. ​ Overall, judging from the results of Kezhou: ​ 1. BTC will generally complete, or will soon complete, the market trend in the first half of 2019 in one year in 2023. ​ 2. We cannot rule out that BTC still has room and possibility to rise, but the upward probability and risk must be faced. ​ 3. Altcoins (especially those not related to BTC) need to be faced with more caution.

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